Why do lottery winners have to disclose their winnings
What are the chances of winning a lottery six?
The seven-fold jackpot with a record sum of 14 million euros is a first in Austria's 32-year lottery history. By the way, almost exactly a year ago, on December 24, 2017, Austria's first six-fold jackpot was cracked. We answer the most important questions from a scientific perspective.
Question: What do gambling and probability theory have to do with one another?
Answer: The Greeks and Romans' interest in gambling was one of the earliest drivers of probability, or stochastics. Problems that arose with gambling were also the basis for the development of probability theories in the 17th and 18th centuries. The correspondence between the great French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat on the problem of a dice gambler is considered to be the hour of the birth of the classical calculus of probability.
Question: How long has the lottery existed?
Answer: In the 15th century, the Genoese discovered the lottery as a means of raising money. Originally, the lot was used to determine the council members annually. Five were drawn from 90 pieces of paper with names on them. From this a lively betting business developed, from which the lottery later developed, in which the names were replaced by numbers, the first "5 out of 90". Since this simple business principle generated large profits, the right to hold lotteries passed to the respective rulers and governments. In Austria, Empress Maria Theresia introduced a lottery with 90 numbers under the name "Lotto di Genova" in 1751.
Question: What is the probability of winning the lottery?
Answer: Extremely low. Due to the total of 8,145,060 tip variants that are possible with the "6 out of 45" option, the probability of winning with one tip is one in eight million. This corresponds to a probability of 0.0000123 percent. The likelihood of being killed by lightning is roughly the same. With just two tips the chance doubles - from a purely statistical point of view. The probability of not ticking a single correct number, on the other hand, is a whopping 91.5 percent. As a consolation: being hit by a meteorite is a lot less likely than a lottery sexton.
Question: Do the chances of winning the sevenfold jackpot increase?
Answer: The probability of a six or any other correct combination always remains the same, no matter how much is in the pot. The more participants there are, however, the higher the probability of having to share the profit. Nevertheless, it makes sense to play in a jackpot round, because the lottery ticket costs the same as usual, but the potential profit is higher, says Florian Aigner from the TU Wien, the author of the book "Der Zufall, das Universum und You".
Question: How many of the tips are given on average?
Answer: The number of bets given per round fluctuates considerably, depending on whether it is a Wednesday or Sunday round, a "normal" or a jackpot round. The average is 6.6 million. With a six-way joker, around 80 percent of the possible number combinations are typed. The current sevenfold jackpot is expected to have 16 million tips and a coverage of up to 85 percent of the possible tips. The chances of an eight-fold jackpot are therefore manageable.
Question: Are there numbers that are drawn and typed particularly often or rarely?
Answer: The number 43 is at the top with 425 drawings, 33 was drawn the rarest, 340 times. Very often dates (numbers up to 31) are ticked, but also patterns that result when ticking a normal form.
Question: Which lottery has the best chance of winning?
Answer: In fact, the Austrian "6 out of 45" lottery is one of the lotteries with the highest chance of winning a jackpot with a probability of one in eight million. For comparison: In Germany's "6 out of 49" the chances are only one in 140 million (on par with Euromillions), in Italy's "6 out of 90" even only one in 623 million. One thing is certain: in the end, the lottery company wins, which on average collects millions in every drawing. In 2017, Austrian Lotteries achieved sales of 603.55 million euros with the "6 out of 45" lottery alone. (kri, 11/21/2018)
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